This is Black (African-American) History Month. The event began as Black History Week in 1926. For many years, the second week of February was set aside for this celebration to coincide with the birthdays of abolitionist/editor Frederick Douglass and Abraham Lincoln but then expanded in 1976 into Black History Month. The 2010 census counted 42 million black (either a single ethnicity or a combination of races) people in the U.S., nearly 14% of the population. Looking at the states, New York had the highest population with 3.3 million blacks, followed by Florida, Texas, Georgia, California, North Carolina, Illinois, Maryland, Virginia and Ohio. In terms of percentages of overall state population, Mississippi led the nation with 38%, followed by Louisiana (33), Georgia (32), Maryland (31), South Carolina (29) and Alabama (27).

When NASA first started sending up astronauts, they quickly discovered that ballpoint pens would not work in zero gravity.  To combat the problem, NASA scientists spent a decade and $12 billion to develop a pen that writes in zero gravity, upside down, underwater, on almost any surface including glass and at temperatures ranging from below freezing to 300 centigrade. The Russians used a pencil. There's a lesson in that amusing tale for mortgage bankers and Realtors - I just don't know what it is. I do know that the definition of "deleveraging" is, "The process or practice of reducing the level of one's debt by rapidly selling one's assets." As it turns out, Equifax reported that U.S. consumers sharply reduced their debts by 11% last year, from $12.4 trillion to $11.1 trillion.

This news will prompt many lenders to throw a ticker-tape parade that will rival the NY Giants football event today. HUD and the FHA have long promoted the FHA Streamline Refinance as a useful tool to allow responsible homeowners to save thousands of dollars by refinancing at today's low interest rates. FHA-insured borrowers must be current, and in theory they can refinance into today's lower rates without requiring additional underwriting. "However, it has become apparent that some of our lending partners are reluctant to offer this product widely because of concerns about taking on the risk of a loan which they may not have underwritten and the potential adverse impact such a loan may have on their FHA Compare Ratio. In order to expand the availability of this product for eligible borrowers, FHA will make changes to the way in which FHA Streamline Refinance loans are displayed in the Neighborhood Watch Early Warning System (Neighborhood Watch). Streamline Refinances will be removed from the public compare ratio in Neighborhood Watch, but lenders will still be able to view their own traditional compare ratio (with streamlines included)." The Announcement

All eyes are on California as the deadline approaches for state officials to sign onto the multibillion-dollar foreclosure abuse settlement.  As the largest remaining holdout, California appears to leaning towards signing, which could potentially increase the settlement from $19 billion to upward of $25 billion. New York seems to be acting on the same lines. (Do you think the AG's are texting with each other?) Part of the deal for these two states would be the preservation of the right to investigate banks' past misdeeds and adding regulation to ensure that financial institutions adhere to the deal and that the money actually reaches struggling homeowners.  As it stands now, the deal would allocate $17 billion specifically for principal reductions and other relief for up to one million borrowers whose homes are underwater. The 750,000 families whose homes have been foreclosed would receive checks for about $2,000. A deal has been in the making for the past 13 months, as the settlement has been delayed on multiple occasions, so a lot is riding on the decisions of the California and New York Attorneys General - if they do sign on, a finalized deal will come much sooner than later.

As the foreclosure abuses settlement deal finalizes people are getting a better idea of the numbers involved.  The amount that home mortgage securities investors will have to pay is now projected to be up to $40 billion, which, according to the government, would act as a "down payment" for future principal reduction initiatives from future settlements. The White House plans to litigation as a key tool for procuring additional sums from large financial institutions that will be used to further aid for struggling borrowers.  This is part of a trend that has seen the Obama administration escalate efforts to help US borrowers-in addition to the finalization of the foreclosure and loan abuses settlements, a new state and federal unit has been created to investigate mortgage-related fraud.

I will never be an internet mortgage marketing whiz kid. And I guess Google thinks something similar - on the heels of several office closures, Google has discontinued its mortgage rate advertising platform Google Mortgage Advisor after two years of operation.  Apparently the decision was based on the product's poor performance and a company initiative to de-clutter by shutting down programs that aren't as successful as projected. From the Google website: "Google Advisor mortgages has been discontinued We’ve been prioritizing our product efforts across Google, which means taking a hard look at products that haven’t been as successful as we would have hoped. To that end, we’ve closed down the mortgage search feature of Google Advisor and are focused on building continued improvements into the rest of the product."

"Recent changes to the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) present both opportunities and challenges to lenders and services. DataQuick, a provider of advanced real estate information solutions powered by data, analytics and decisioning, has already responded with timely new offerings that quickly identify eligible loan modification candidates. Through the application of proprietary analytics on its nationwide property database, DataQuick has identified 6.7 million borrowers who meet the new eligibility requirements and will most likely benefit from the revised program. Lenders and servicers can easily match their current portfolio to the database to identify the best candidates for loan modification. HARP eligibility requires that candidates have no late mortgage payments in the past six months and no more than one late payment in the past 12 months." Sounds pretty nifty - for more information contact your DataQuick sales representative or Wendy Barnett at wbarnett@dataquick.com. (And nope, this wasn't a paid ad.)

I am not an expert in compliance, but this caught my eye: in the January 24th Federal Register, HUD has proposed a rule  (ECOA/Reg B) that prohibits banks from discriminating against borrowers based on ethnicity, religion, national origin, gender, marital status, age (provided the applicant has the capacity to contract), income from public assistance, or the exercise of any Consumer Credit Protection Act.  The Fair Housing Act prohibits discrimination on account of familial status or handicaps. These are very, very recent developments-both rules go into effect on March 5.  It boggles the mind a bit, but better late than never, one supposes. The January 24th Federal Register entry can be read by clicking http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2011/pdf/2011-1346.pdf.

The markets certainly don't care about marital status or gender, and yesterday we saw a nice little half-point rally (improvement) in the U.S.10-yr with it closing at 1.90%. With no scheduled news in this country, Treasuries gained today as "risk aversion" was back on worries about Greece. MBS prices improved from nearly .5 on 30-year 3.0% coupons to just roughly unchanged on 4.5's through 6.5's, as one would expect. And then overnight Greece's main political parties reportedly missed a deadline for responding to demands for more austerity measures. Negotiations between Greece and its private creditors are on hold while officials work on a rescue program with the EU, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. Greece faces a 14.5 billion euro bond repayment in less than six weeks. It won't be able to make the payment without international help.

Here in the states, once again there is no news of substance although we do have a $32 billion 3-yr note auction at 1PM EST. Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to repeat his recent testimony before the House Budget Committee to the Senate Budget Committee beginning at 10AM EST, but don't look for anything new. MBS Prices are down.

HIGH SCHOOL -- 1957 vs. 2010 (Part 2 of 2)
Scenario 5:
Mark gets a headache and takes some aspirin to school.
1957 - Mark shares his aspirin with the Principal out on the smoking dock.
2010 - The police are called and Mark is expelled from school for drug violations. His car is then searched for drugs and weapons.
Scenario 6:
Pedro fails high school English.
1957 - Pedro goes to summer school, passes English and goes to college.
2010 - Pedro's cause is taken up by state. Newspaper articles appear nationally explaining that teaching English as a requirement for graduation is racist. ACLU files class action lawsuit against the state school system and Pedro's English teacher. English is then banned from core curriculum. Pedro is given his diploma anyway but ends up mowing lawns for a living because he cannot speak English.
Scenario 7:
Johnny takes apart leftover firecrackers from the Fourth of July, puts them in a model airplane paint bottle and blows up a red ant bed.
1957 - Ants die.
2010 - ATF, Homeland Security and the FBI are all called. Johnny is charged with domestic terrorism. The FBI investigates his parents - and all siblings are removed from their home and all computers are confiscated. Johnny's dad is placed on a terror watch list and is never allowed to fly again.
Scenario 8:
Johnny falls while running during recess and scrapes his knee. He is found crying by his teacher, Mary. Mary hugs him to comfort him.
1957 - In a short time, Johnny feels better and goes on playing.
2010 - Mary is accused of being a sexual predator and loses her job. She faces 3 years in State Prison. Johnny undergoes 5 years of therapy.

If you're interested, visit my twice-a-month blog at the STRATMOR Group web site located at www.stratmorgroup.com. The current blog discusses residential lending and mortgage programs around the world, part 2. If you have both the time and inclination, make a comment on what I have written, or on other comments so that folks can learn what's going on out there from the other readers.

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Some will call this a useful tool and a time saver - others will say it is another sign of our privacy going away and "Big Brother" seeing everything. Enter an address, and it displays a map of the area showing all residences/businesses, including their phone numbers: http://neighbors.whitepages.com.

In Northern California, WBC Lending is looking for experienced wholesale AE's to call on brokers. WBC Lending has "an aggressive product offering, including a super jumbo portfolio product with start rate 1.625% and life cap of 6.25%, up to $2 million dollars with a 50% DTI, and a 40-year term." With over 65 years of combined wholesale mortgage banking experience, the executive management team at WBC Lending believes they have put together a wholesale platform that is second to none, and would prefer that candidates have a minimum of 2 years' experience. WBC has local underwriting, docs and funding all out of the San Jose based corporate offices.   If interested, please inquire today by contacting John Giagiari at jg@westernbancorp.com, and for more information on the company visit http://www.westernbancorp.com/.

Perhaps Bank of America home loans president Barbara Desoer could apply - she will retire this month after being at the bank since 1977! Her most recent assignment was the "integration of the Home Loans business into Consumer Banking" after the 2008 purchase of Countrywide.

HUD, and the FHA, is definitely a big part of the home mortgage environment. In the name of further learning, HUD is offering a variety of training programs, including an online course on the new HOPE LoanPort (HLP) enhancements.  You can register for classes, which are take place every Tuesday and Thursday.  Also available is a series webinars on Loss Mitigation, offered in conjunction with the FHA.  Some of the upcoming courses cover HUD's Neighborhood Watch System, loss mitigation, default reporting and FHA claims.  See the HUD website to register.

Early pay-offs (prepayments) of Ginnie Mae securities, made up primarily of FHA and VA loans, is causing some concern among investors. Besides the initiatives announced by President Obama in his Plan to Help Responsible Homeowners and Heal the Housing Market, more changes, such as tweaks to the FHA mortgage insurance premiums (MIP), could be unveiled in the next few weeks. President Obama's plan describes "Streamlined Refinancing for FHA Borrowers" by excluding streamline-refinanced loans from comparison ratio calculations. Most believe that this plan will be implemented and has the potential to raise GNMA prepayment speeds. (There has been a recent increase in early pay-offs; most attribute this to the "GNMA universe" becoming a lot more refinanceable after the improvement in FHA rates this year.)

(As a quick refresher, the compare ratio is the serious delinquency rate of all loans originated by a lender during a one or two-year period relative to the average of all lenders operating in the same region. If this ratio rises above 150%, the lender may lose the ability to make new FHA loans out of that region or branch - 200% is almost a sure thing. As higher coupon and seasoned loans have a weaker credit and greater default risks, lenders worry that streamline-refinancing them could push up the compare ratio.)

If Streamlines are excluded from the compare ratio calculation, this should remove a disincentive for streamline-refinancing higher-risk borrowers. This argues for an increase in GNMA prepayments, particularly on higher coupons and pre-2009 originations since these have the worst credit quality. But data from HUD suggest that the compare ratios of most national lenders are now significantly below the 150% threshold (see below), implying that this is not the only binding condition for refinancing riskier loans. In addition, FHA's indemnification rules essentially grant put-back amnesty for loans originated before 2009 - refinancing these loans would reset the clock and put the lender on the hook for fresh rep & warranties. Unless FHA grants put-back amnesty for all streamline refinances, lenders are likely to remain skittish. And let us not forget the various overlays that most investors have in place on FHA Streamlines.

So where are the compare ratios of "the big boys"? The current national compare ratios for the big lenders, from research piece I read from a large broker-dealer, are all below 130% - well below 200% recommended by FHA. Only 6% of lenders have a compare ratio of above 200% and these lenders comprise of only 2% of the total loans outstanding (that are considered for calculating compare ratios). BofA has 126, Chase 39, Wells 79, Quicken 78, US Bank 69, Fifth Third 59, PHH 66. Bank of America 90+ delinquencies have been steadily rising and there are concerns that they will be forced to do a one-time buyout as their 90+ delinquencies hit 5%, and/or, similar to GMAC, BofA starts buying out just enough delinquent loans to maintain delinquencies at that level.

Critics of the compare ratio ask, "Isn't it more of a long term snapshot of performance than short term?  If a lender tightens up their guidelines would you see an immediate impact to the compare ratio?" Some liken it to turning a cruise ship, and only looking in the rear view mirror. And further complicating things is the theory that most delinquencies are caused by unforeseen job losses, rather than other reasons that might have been caught during the underwriting process - unless one's underwriters were very poor and the company was seeing a first payment default problem.

Speaking of which, the serious delinquency rate for FHA mortgages reached 9.6% in December, and the highest level in more than two years, HUD recently announced. More than 711,000 FHA-insured loans were seriously delinquent, up almost 19% from one year earlier, according to the HUD report, and up 3% from November. At the same time, mostly for pricing reasons, originations are down. In December, the FHA insured 93,700 mortgages, a nearly 30% decline from the 133,000 insured in December 2010. Analysts are most concerned with the FHA's insurance fund: in its fiscal year 2011, the FHA Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund slipped to a 0.24% capital ratio from 0.5% the year prior. By law, the fund must remain above 2%. Lenders should not be surprised if the FHA insurance premiums go up again this year.

Here in Miami, and everywhere else condos exist, condo buyers are having a hard time obtaining FHA mortgages, and often it's down to the building's financial status, not the borrower's.  Since February 2010, the FHA have required that the whole building be deemed financially viable rather than just the single units, which has resulted in a proliferation of rejected buildings, a headache for condo sellers who rely on the FHA stamp of approval as a marketing mechanism, impeding the housing market's recovery. FHA regulations now dictate that buildings must be 50% owner-occupied, that no more than 10% of the units are owned by one entity, that no more than 15% of the units are 30 days past due on their monthly assessments, and that at least 10% of the association budget be set aside for capital expenditures and deferred maintenance.  The general consensus in the housing industry is that, given consumer demand for FHA-backed mortgages, the regulation is short-sighted.

FHA mortgagees participating in the Lender Insurance ("LI") program will be required to indemnify HUD for self-endorsed loans that HUD deems ineligible for FHA insurance based on a final regulation published by HUD on January 25. The regulation finalizes changes to the LI regulations and will take effect on February 24. In addition to the significant changes to HUD's indemnification authority for self-endorsed loans through the LI program, the final regulation also amends mortgagee eligibility criteria to participate in the LI program, including acceptable default/claim rates, amends HUD's authority to monitor lenders participating in the LI program, and implements a process for FHA lenders terminated from the LI program to request reinstatement of their LI authority.

HUD made clear that these amendments are designed to improve and expand the risk management activities of the FHA and to strengthen the FHA Insurance Fund by limiting "unnecessary and inappropriate risks" to the Fund associated with loans that the Department determines should not have been endorsed through the LI program. As HUD notes, this is the latest in a series of steps the Department has taken to strengthen the financial soundness of the FHA program and mitigate the risk of possible insolvency of the FHA Insurance Fund as HUD continues its efforts to increase FHA's capital reserve ratio to meet the congressionally mandated threshold of two percent.

Last week was not kind to fixed-income U.S. securities, especially after that strong jobs number Friday. But the U.S. economy is not setting the world on fire, and Europe still poses a threat - and could for years. So we can all expect rates to drift and drift down. Rates are holding record lows as mortgage bonds (MBS) rally ever higher. Any modest improvement in our economy would nudge investors into equities and out of bonds - but the overhang of the Eurozone debt crisis proves to be too much. Our 10-yr T-note closed Friday at about 1.94%

The economic calendar will be very light this week - so watch for Europe to perhaps regain center stage. We do, however, have some Bernanke testimony and Treasury auctions tomorrow, Wednesday, and Thursday; the Trade Balance and Consumer Sentiment will be released on Friday. Ahead of that rates and prices are nearly unchanged from Friday.

HIGH SCHOOL -- 1957 vs. 2010 (Part 1 of 2)
Scenario 1:
Jack goes quail hunting before school and then pulls into the school parking lot with his shotgun in his truck's gun rack..
1957 - Vice Principal comes over, looks at Jack's shotgun, goes to his car and gets his shotgun to show Jack.
2010 - School goes into lock down, FBI called, Jack hauled off to jail and never sees his truck or gun again. Counselors called in for traumatized students and teachers.
Scenario 2:
Johnny and Mark get into a fist fight after school.
1957 - Crowd gathers. Mark wins. Johnny and Mark shake hands and end up buddies.
2010 - Police called and SWAT team arrives -- they arrest both Johnny and Mark. They are both charged with assault and both expelled even though Johnny started it.
Scenario 3:
Jeffrey will not be still in class, he disrupts other students.
1957 - Jeffrey sent to the Principal's office and given a good paddling by the Principal. He then returns to class, sits still and does not disrupt class again.
2010 - Jeffrey is given huge doses of Ritalin. He becomes a zombie. He is then tested for ADD. The family gets extra money (SSI) from the government because Jeffrey has a disability.
Scenario 4:
Billy breaks a window in his neighbor's car and his Dad gives him a whipping with his belt.
1957 - Billy is more careful next time, grows up normal, goes to college and becomes a successful businessman.
2010 - Billy's dad is arrested for child abuse; Billy is removed to foster care and joins a gang. The state psychologist is told by Billy's sister that she remembers being abused herself and their dad goes to prison. Billy's mom has an affair with the psychologist.
(Part 2 tomorrow.)

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